Having put the Olympic preview on hold until this summer, it is time to tackle the imminent hockey tournament, which doubles as the best two months of competition in sports. I speak, of course, of the NHL playoffs.
The problem, though, is that due to re-seeding at the end of each round, it isn’t possible to make picks NCAA bracket style, all the way through to the finals. I will give it a go anyways, but since the matchups will be off unless I go 4 for 4 in a conference, it will likely be necessary to come back and revise the picks at the conclusion of round one. Luckily, that is easy enough. At any rate, here we go…
Round 1
Eastern Conference
(4) Pittsburgh Penguins vs. (5) Philadelphia Flyers – The Keystone Ice Cup
The Matchup
Put simply, I don’t see the Flyers matching up here. At forward, the Flyers are certainly deep, but it is hard to argue against the Crosby/Malkin duo. Grit has been an issue for the Pens, but if the stars at the front of their lineup play as such, it is unlikely that they will miss the likes of Ryan Malone, who skipped town in the summer. Although the price (Ryan Whitney) was steep, the acquisition of Chris Kunitz will likely help to keep the Penguins involved in the grinding aspect of playoff hockey.
On the blue line, the Penguins have been on a tear for the better part of the second half of the season, largely because of the resurgence of a now healthy Sergei Gonchar. Logging 19 points in just 25 games, Gonchar revitalized the Penguins power play, and took pressure off of guys like Brooks Orpik and the talented youngster Kris Letang. On the other side of the Keystone Commonwealth, Philly saw 43 points from Kimmo Timmonan (the heir to Darius Kasparaitis for “NHL defenseman who’s name sounds most like a medical term), and a resurgent 26 points from Matt Carl, just a year removed from “healthy scratch” no-man’s land. Alas, Pittsburgh seems to be a little bit better in terms of both top end talent and depth on the blueline.
In goal, while Marc-Andre Fleury has hardly been a model of consistency in his stint as the Penguins backstop, you would have to give him the edge over the Biron/Nittymaki tandom in Philly.
The Question
Will the Penguins superstars, Sid Crosby and Gino Malkin, who were inconsistent despite the Pens running to the cup finals in 08, show up and dominate this cross-Pennsylvania matchup?
The Answer
Indeed, they will. Malkin has taken his game to another level this season, as the numbers indicate, and Crosby, while somewhat down in points, has found a new grit that should lend itself well to the intensity of the playoffs.
The Pick
Western PA in 5
(3) New Jersey Devils vs. (6) Carolina Hurricanes – The Paul Maurice Cup
The Matchup
I can’t, for the life of me, explain why, but the Hurricanes have been arguably the hottest team in the NHL for the past month or two, and they seem to be the consensus pick for “Eastern Conference 5-8 seed that the higher seeds would like to avoid.” All I know is this, they fired Peter Laviolette, and somehow getting rid of the man who vaguely resembles Sly Stallone behind the bench sent them on a tear.
As for New Jersey, they have something that they haven’t had the luxury of in quite a while, and that is a fresh Marty Brodeur. The all-time winningest (screw you, squiggly red line, winningest is a word…I heard it on Sportscenter so it has to be) goaltender, having missed much of the season sidelined by injury, has played just 31 games. He should be better prepared for a long playoff run should they get by the Canes.
The most important thing of note about the Devils, though is that this is a very different team from the ones that won a lot of games and pissed off just about every hockey fan between 1994 and 2005. The Devils will still fall back on the trap at times, but for the most part they rely on fast, freewheeling forwards such as Zach Parise (94 points), Patrik Elias (78) and Jamie Langenbrunner (69 points) as well as underrated puck moving defenseman Paul Martin (+21 on the season) to score at a much more potent rate than the Devils of old.
The Question
What the hell is going on in Raleigh?
The Answer
I legitimately have no idea, this team looks extremely mediocre on paper, but they have been getting it done. Unfortunately, Eric Stall is going to have to learn the same lesson in humility at the hands of Zach Parise that his older brother Gunner got from the likes of Adam Banks and Charlie Conway. I’m just going to pick against them and move on.
The Pick
Familiarity (New Jersey), over mystery (Carolina) in 6
(2) Washington Capitals vs. (7) New York Rangers – The Beltway and the Broadway
The Matchup
The Capitals have Alex Ovechkin (the best scorer in the NHL), Mike Greene (the best defenseman in the NHL), Alex Semin and Nicklas Backstrom (two of the most underrated in the NHL— 79 and 88 points respectively, and Semin only played 62 games). The Rangers leading scorer (Antripov) had 59 points. Not only did the Caps have 4 players score more than that, one was a defenseman.
Washington also has Jose Theodore, while the Rangers have Henrik Lundqvist.
That one sentence turns what looks like a blowout into something of a toss up.
The Question
There is only one, and it is huge. Can Henrik Lundqvist steal a couple of games, or even the series, or will Theodore get the job done for Washington?
The Answer
The Caps have been shaky defensively and in net, make no mistake, but their firepower should be too much for the Broadway Blue.
The Pick
Government over finance in 5
(1) Boston Bruins vs. (8) Montreal Canadiens – Not these Guys again
The Matchup
Essentially, the matchup boils down to this: a vastly superior team versus a certain bleu, blanc et rouge sweater.
Really, the Canadiens shouldn’t even be able to hang with the Bruins. The Brus have the best 2 way player in the NHL, a goaltender who is phenomenal at (most) times, and an exceptional core of 7 players with 50+ points (7 20 goal scorers, plus a 19 and a 17).
As for Les Habitants, for them to compete, 2 things have to happen. First of all they need to get Schneider and Markov, their two best defensemen, back from injury. Secondly, Bob Gainey needs to wake the eff up and play Jaroslav Halak. Halak is an above average young goaltender, with a bright future in the NHL. Carey Price, on the other hand, is an overhyped, underachieving mockery of what it means to be an all star. Will he ever be a good goaltender in the NHL? In all likelihood yes, but he is not right now. Mark my words, the Canadians don’t have a chance with him in net (look back at their season, and you will find that Halak, not Price, won most of the key games that got them to the playoffs). If those two circumstances are unable to come to fruition, the ghosts that exist in this rivalry may creep up upon the Bruins.
The Question
Will Bob Gainey smarten up and play Halak instead of Price, and if so, can the Bruins overcome the historical struggles with the Habs?
The Answer
Probably not, and even if he does, the Canadiens just don’t seem to match up.
The Pick
Change Boston can believe in, in 6 if Markov and Halak play, 4 if they don’t
Western Conference
(4) Chicago Blackhawks vs. (5) Calgary Flames – Grind versus Glamour
The Matchup
This is probably the most compelling matchup of the first round. Calgary has three big scorers (Jokinen, Iginla and Camalarri), two big defensemen (Phaneuf and Aucoin), and possibly the best goaltender in the league (although also possibly the second best goaltender in the northwest division). To me, Chichago isn’t quite as solid. They are certainly glitzier, but they have questionable two way defending, and are at a huge disadvantage in net. The two things that they have going for them are speed (Kane, Teows, Sharp, Versteeg, Campbell and Havlat are all great skaters, to name a few) and skill. The other thing is depth. Calgary will ask a lot of the Curtis Glencrosses and David Mosses of the world, whereas Chicago can roll out players like Pat Sharp or Chris Versteeg in second and third line situations.
The Question
Can the youngsters in the Chi step up in the playoffs, or will ‘soff hold ‘em off?
The Answer
Both. I think that guys like Kane, Teows, Sharp and Havlat will play well, but I just think that the goaltending is too big of a disparity.
The Pick
Kipprusoff in 7
(3) Vancouver Canucks vs. (6) St. Louis Blues – Midnight
The Cinderella story of the year has to be either this team or the one right below it, as I doubt that anyone saw both the Blues and the Canucks reaching the playoffs. St. Louis has young talent up front with breakout guys like David Backes, Brad Boyes and the scrappy TJ Oshie, among others. They aren’t really spectacular, but they have solid players filling out lines 1-3.
On defense, the Blues are tough and have a fair amount of skill, even without the services of former #1 pick Eric Johnson.
Then, there is goaltender. The Canucks have Roberto Luongo, and that is all that really matters. They could realistically give up 35 shots, score 2 goals and win the game two or three times a series, and that makes them not only a safe bet to take care of St. Louis, but a scarry draw for anyone later on in the playoffs.
The Question
Will Roberto Luongo play at the level that we are accustomed to seeing him play at during this series?
The Answer
I don’t see why not, and that should be enough for the Canucks.
The Pick
Johnny Robby Canuck in 6
(2) Detroit Red Wings vs. (7) Columbus Blue Jackets – OSU vs. Michigan
The Matchup
The Blue Jackets are in the playoffs for the first time in club history. We should take some time to feel happy for a squad, and a fairly good fan base, that is finally going to get to participate in hockey’s second season. Make sure you don’t take too much time though, because I wouldn’t expect them to be there long.
Detroit is, well, the defending champions plus a top 10 forward. It is hard to know where to start, so suffice to say that they won it last year, brought pretty much everyone back up front, and added Marion Hossa. To say anything else would be overkill.
Columbus is a bit more interesting. Going into the season, you would have expected their fourtunes to ride on their young talent (I mean really young…mostly rookies) stepping up. They had just lost their second best player to the Rangers, and basically, they were a superstar (Rick Nash), a couple of young guns and a bunch of role players. Somehow, though, even though they got very little from their rookie forwards (Brassard was great, but broke his leg and missed the last 5 months of the season, Filitov was up and down and Voracek didn’t give them all that much production), but a bunch of guys stepped up under Ken Hitchcock’s system, and a rookie goaltender carried them to the postseason.
The Red Wings do have a couple of weaknesses. It is unclear that Chris Osgood can carry them to a cup this year, and they have, for whatever reason, been prone to looking somewhat lethargic at times this season. Alas, I just don’t think that will be an issue in the playoffs, and the goaltending shouldn’t be a problem, at least this round.
The Question
Can the BJs push the Wings deep in the series and maybe steal a couple with Mason to win the series?
The Answer
The Wings are getting older, and the Jackets are one of the younger teams in the league, so maybe at some point, but probably not this year.
The Pick
Motor City in 5
(1)San Jose Sharks vs. (8) Anaheim Mighty Ducks – California Dreaming
The Matchup
I like, nay, love this matchup as a Sharks fan. The Ducks and the Sharks play a very similar style this year, but they did it in much the same way that
In every meaningful instance this year (before the Sharks effectively clinched the division), the Sharks manhandled Anaheim. Anyone looking for a preview of how this series will likely play out need only to watch a tape of opening night in San Jose, a 40+ shot clinic put on by the President’s Trophy winners (I know that it took place a long 6 months ago, but that is about how far you have to go back to find a game that the Sharks had any sort of pressure on them). This is two big, physical and fast teams, but the Sharks are bigger and faster, and should have a big edge.
The Question
Will the Sharks be able to regain the intensity that they haven’t needed for months in time to knock take care of an inferior team?
The Answer
A slow start in the series is definitely possible, but it is hard to imagine that by the end of game one, or at least game 2 the intensity won’t be back.
The Pick
Ducks in….yeah right, good guys in 5
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